Security
The Boko Haram insurgency has outlasted three elected commanders-in-chief. Each took office promising to end it — often within months — and each handed it on.
Rather than being contained, the insurgency escalated dramatically: a state of emergency was declared across Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa in May 2013, yet by early 2015 Boko Haram controlled territory roughly the size of Belgium, including local government headquarters. The group renamed itself a 'caliphate' in 2014, and the Baga massacre in January 2015 was one of the deadliest single attacks in the insurgency's history.
Boko Haram lost significant territory and fractured into splinter groups. 107 of the 276 Chibok girls were rescued or freed. However, insurgency continued in a degraded form, and banditry expanded to the North-West. Full normalcy was not achieved.
The MNJTF was reactivated and conducted joint operations that reclaimed significant territory from Boko Haram in 2015–2016. However, coordination between member states was inconsistent, funding lagged pledges, and ISWAP exploited gaps to entrench itself in the Lake Chad islands, sustaining a cross-border insurgency through the end of Buhari's term.
Security budget increased 160% from ₦1.25trn (2023) to ₦3.25trn (2024). Despite this, 17,617 fatalities and 16,462 abductions were recorded from June 2023 to April 2025. Governors of Borno and Plateau states publicly stated government forces were "losing ground" to terrorists in April 2025.
Each entry is one rated promise — follow it to that administration’s full scorecard. Ratings use the four verdicts defined in the methodology.