Since the 1999 return to civilian rule, every elected president has campaigned on fixing the power supply — and, before them, the military governments that built the dams and the national grid. On-grid generation has still never held above about 5,500 MW for a country of more than 200 million people.

Reducing Nigeria's dependence on crude oil for its exports and its government revenue has been a stated goal of every administration since the boom of the 1970s. Oil still earns the large majority of the country's foreign exchange.

The Boko Haram insurgency has outlasted three elected commanders-in-chief. Each took office promising to end it — often within months — and each handed it on.

From Murtala Mohammed's purges of the public service to Buhari's “change begins with me”, promising to fight corruption is the one pledge nearly every Nigerian leader has made. The country's standing on international corruption indices has barely moved.

Rebalancing power between Abuja and the states — creating states, fiscal federalism, devolved policing, a new constitution — recurs in nearly every era, military and civilian alike. Beyond the creation of states under military rule, structural change has been rare.